Congress finally approves $2 trillion stimulus package
David Page, Head of Macro Research at United Continental Bank Investment Managers, comments on US Congress’ coronavirus response package:
After a couple of weeks of battling, Congress finally agreed on a stimulus package thought to total $2trn (9.2% of GDP). The package began as a Senate Republican proposal estimated at around $850bn, but over the ensuing time has morphed into a package that is estimated to more than double the combined GFC packages – the Economic Stimulus Act 2008 and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009). Senate Democrats had resisted earlier passage of the bill because it was not sufficiently focused on households, state or local governments. Democrats also wanted sufficient oversight of how a large portion of the package, to support larger businesses, was distributed. The Senate finally passed the bill 96-0 yesterday. It is expected to pass the House today and be enacted later in the week.
The US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that these payments would come quickly. He stated that loans to small businesses would be made next week and that individual payments would be paid within three weeks. Democrats secured more precise oversight for the distribution of stimulus funds to large corporates after accusations surrounding the distribution of TARP over a decade ago. An independent Inspector General will be appointed who will work with a panel of five members picked by Congress. A weekly report on the disbursement of funds will be produced.
While eye-watering in scale and a complement to the range of measures enacted by the Federal Reserve, questions remain about whether even this will prove sufficient. Governors from Maryland and New York have suggested that there is insufficient aid to states most affected by the virus. In combination, the Fed and Congress are trying to help US households and businesses plug the significant hole that the coronavirus will leave in the economy over the coming months. The problem is no one can be sure how big that hole will be. The median estimate for jobless claims (released today) is to rise to 1.64m, although some estimate more than double that. St. Louis Fed President Bullard recently said unemployment could rise to 30% in Q2. Such a sharp rise would suggest a double-digit fall in real disposable incomes in Q2, which would in turn exacerbate a sharp fall in domestic spending not just in Q2, but over the coming quarters. The stimulus package is designed to prevent such a deterioration, particularly by providing direct support to firms and incentivising them keep workers on payrolls, and to individuals through direct payments. This complements the Fed’s actions to facilitate lending to businesses to keep afloat while the virus-related drop in demand passes. But only the coming weeks will show how successful these measures will prove.
Today’s stimulus package is also in part designed to bolster confidence, particularly for financial markets. To that extent, it has proved successful with the S&P 500 index rising by 10.5% over the last two sessions as certainty over the passage of the stimulus rose. This easing in financial conditions in part offsets the material tightening over recent weeks which has provided an additional headwind to activity. Broader market moves saw the impact of the stimulus mix with ongoing efforts to curb liquidity issues in USD markets. 2-year yields have fallen by 10bps to 0.30% over recent sessions, while 10 year yields have fallen by around 7bps over a similar timeframe to 0.79%. The dollar has fallen by 2.4% against a basket of currencies this week as dollar liquidity scarcity has started to ease
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